百度将发布财报 彭博社:广告业务下滑使其业绩或不佳
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互联网络 2019-03-25 16:09:46 字数:978

北京时间2月20日早间消息,彭博社报道称,百度本周将公布2018年第四季度业绩,但由于身处竞争越发激烈的广告市场,而广告市场恰恰对宏观经济最为敏感,所以该公司的前景可能比阿里巴巴和腾讯更为糟糕。如果现状无法迅速改观,本来就已经落后于阿里巴巴和腾讯的百度,似乎还将继续丧失失地。

事实证明,作为阿里巴巴的核心业务的电子商务比传统零售商更有韧性,而深入发展云计算等业务也帮助其推动营收增长。腾讯也而表现突出,得益于游戏版号解封,该公司股价去年10月触底以来已经反弹逾30%。

而百度的主营业务——广告却陷入困境。目前该公司不仅仅面临来自两大对手的竞争,还要面临字节跳动等创业公司的进攻。竞争对手不仅在压低广告价格,还在抢夺营销资金。百度在依靠信息流、阿波罗无人驾驶系统和DuerOS人工智能平台等较新的服务推动未来增长,虽然这些部门已经为百度贡献了大约五分之一的营收,但却尚未实现太大利润。

“百度营收增长在中国大型互联网公司中速度最慢,即便是加入信息流项目也不例外。”投资银行Bernstein分析师大卫·戴(David Dai)说。他估计百度的广告市场份额已经下滑到21%,而阿里巴巴为36%。“从长期来看,我们认为DuerOS和阿波罗都有机会,但却需要等到这两个部门有更加明确的腾飞信号。”

这都给微信运营商腾讯带来了更高的估值水平——该公司股价对应今年的市盈率约为34倍,超过了阿里巴巴的32倍和百度的17倍。根据彭博社的调查,在这三家巨头中,给予百度“持有”评级的分析师占比最多,约为28%,腾讯为7%,阿里巴巴为2%。

本周四,百度可能会发布2017年初以来最慢的营收增速,约为11.8%。净利润预计将大降32%,创2016年末以来的最大降幅——当时的医药广告丑闻迫使该公司修改了广告销售方式。中金分析师娜塔莉·吴(Natalie Wu)在研报中表示,由于该公司加大内容投入,以吸引用户观看其信息流、短视频平台好看和爱奇艺上的内容,导致利润率缩水。

“在线广告行业的宏观阻力和信息流广告市场的竞争加剧,可能给2019年第一季度的营收前景蒙上阴影,并对短期利润率构成压力。”投资银行Jefferies分析师凯伦·陈(Karen Chan)在上月的研报中写道,“我们的渠道调查显示,整体在线广告市场可能会大幅减速,”从去年的30%放缓到2019年的15%至20%。


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